Israel bunker buster missile6/22/2023 ![]() Nor is Iran’s insistence that it doesn’t intend to develop nuclear weapons credible. Inducements rarely, if ever, alter Iran’s behavior and are unlikely to change the minds of either Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or the new president. The trouble is, incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has made it clear that Iran has no interest in such a deal. The fact that the Biden administration hopes to reach a “longer and stronger” follow-on agreement reflects its recognition that the JCPOA is not sufficient. By 2023, just two years from now, there will be no limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles, very effective delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons. When the JCPOA’s key provisions lapse in 2030, there will be no limits on the size of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the number or types of centrifuges it can run, or even the amount of weapons-grade fissile material it may possess or produce. Returning to the status quo ante, though, will also highlight the original deal’s fundamental shortcomings - its fast-approaching sunset clauses, most notably. That would roll back some of Iran’s recent advances, including its enrichment of uranium to 60% purity and its production of uranium metal, used in nuclear warheads. It’s still possible, perhaps even likely, that the desire for sanctions relief will prompt the Iranians to rejoin the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, once they conclude the U.S. The Biden administration needs to find a better way to deter them. Moreover, even successful talks might not stop Iran’s leaders from pursuing nuclear weapons. ![]() With negotiations paused until a new hard-line administration takes office in Tehran, the chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal anytime soon are not bright. A B-52 releases a test version of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator during a test of the weapon over White Sands Missile Range, N.M., in 2009. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |